The mathematicians and theorists who first subjected uncertainty to rigorous analysis.
Their frameworks — probability theory, Bayesian inference, information theory, game theory — are the tools we use to reason clearly where signal meets noise. We stand on the shoulders of those who first proved that markets are not random, and that uncertainty can be quantified.
Combinatorial probability
1601 – 1665→02Expected value
1623 – 1662→03Law of large numbers
1655 – 1705→04Normal distribution
1667 – 1754→05Expected utility
1700 – 1782→06Posterior probability
1701 – 1761→07Graph theory
1707 – 1783→08Jury theorem
1743 – 1794→09Bayesian inference
1749 – 1827→10Method of least squares
1752 – 1833→11Error theory
1777 – 1855→12Regression to the mean
1822 – 1911→13Markov chains
1856 – 1922→14Game theory
1903 – 1957→15Information theory
1916 – 2001→